La récession a des effets différenciés selon les pays. On s'en doutait. Néanmoins, une étude récente publiée dans the Lancet medical journal et commentée dans le Financial Times met cela en évidence et tente de quantifier ces effets dans 26 pays de l'Union Européenne sur la période 70-07. Les effets des périodes de récession sur l'emploi, et dans un second temps sur le nombre de décès suite à suicides, accidents de la route, crises cardiaques, homicides, abus d'alcool et autres facteurs sont ainsi mesurés en tenant compte des caractéristiques propres à chaque pays. Un des points intéressants de l'étude est de mettre en évidence que ces effets (qui sont quantifiés) sont différenciés selon les pays concernés. Les dépenses sociales (stabilisateurs automatiques) jouent un rôle central selon les auteurs.
Je mets le résumé de l'étude précisant la méthodologie enmployée.
Methods
We used multivariate regression, correcting for population ageing, past mortality and employment trends, and country-specific differences in health-care infrastructure, to examine associations between changes in employment and mortality, and how associations were modified by different types of government expenditure for 26 European Union (EU) countries between 1970 and 2007.
Findings
We noted that every 1% increase in unemployment was associated with a 0·79% rise in suicides at ages younger than 65 years (95% CI 0·16—1·42; 60—550 potential excess deaths [mean 310] EU-wide), although the effect size was non-significant at all ages (0·49%, −0·04 to 1·02), and with a 0·79% rise in homicides (95% CI 0·06—1·52; 3—80 potential excess deaths [mean 40] EU-wide). By contrast, road-traffic deaths decreased by 1·39% (0·64—2·14; 290—980 potential fewer deaths [mean 630] EU-wide). A more than 3% increase in unemployment had a greater effect on suicides at ages younger than 65 years (4·45%, 95% CI 0·65—8·24; 250—3220 potential excess deaths [mean 1740] EU-wide) and deaths from alcohol abuse (28·0%, 12·30—43·70; 1550—5490 potential excess deaths [mean 3500] EU-wide). We noted no consistent evidence across the EU that all-cause mortality rates increased when unemployment rose, although populations varied substantially in how sensitive mortality was to economic crises, depending partly on differences in social protection. Every US$10 per person increased investment in active labour market programmes reduced the effect of unemployment on suicides by 0·038% (95% CI −0·004 to −0·071).
Interpretation
Rises in unemployment are associated with significant short-term increases in premature deaths from intentional violence, while reducing traffic fatalities. Active labour market programmes that keep and reintegrate workers in jobs could mitigate some adverse health effects of economic downturns.
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